Public ledger · refutation criterion · live

Every reading, dated before. Scored after. Stamped.

Misses are surfaced with the same weight as hits. The fingerprint precedes the event. We use OpenTimestamps anchoring on the Bitcoin chain for a subset; SHA-256 on every entry. Filter, search, download a signed substrate-cert for any row.

Entries · 2025–2647
Hits34
Partials9
Misses · published4
showing 47 of 47 hit-rate 72.3% brier 0.18
all signatures verified · last green just now
How to verify

Re-hash the claim string.

Each entry is a UTF-8 string of the form date|subject_id|claim|α. SHA-256 of the string yields the prefix shown. Click Cert on any row to download the signed JSON envelope; the bulk button packages all 47.

Scoring rule

Hit · partial · miss.

Hit = event window contained the outcome and the direction was named. Partial = direction or window only. Miss = neither. We do not score on tone, narrative, or comfort.